Understanding Social Movements Under Political Repression: A Multilevel Analytical Framework

Abstract

Social inequalities in health and education continue to shape life opportunities and outcomes across populations worldwide. Understanding the mechanisms through which social disadvantage influences long-term well-being is essential for designing effective interventions. This paper introduces a Dynamic Causal Mediation Analysis framework that integrates longitudinal interventions and time-varying mediators to examine the pathways linking social conditions to health and educational outcomes. Unlike traditional mediation approaches, the proposed framework captures the evolving nature of mediating factors such as academic achievement, healthcare access, family support, psychological well-being, and socioeconomic resources over time. By decomposing total causal effects into direct and indirect components, the model identifies the mechanisms that contribute most significantly to persistent inequalities. The framework further enables the evaluation of intervention timing, intensity, and duration across different stages of the life course. Through simulation and longitudinal analysis, researchers can estimate the potential impact of targeted policies on reducing disparities among vulnerable populations.