Modeling Health Trajectories Across the Life Course: A Multistate Analytical Framework

Abstract

Life-course health is shaped by a complex interaction of biological, behavioral, environmental, and socioeconomic factors that influence transitions between different health states over time. This study presents a multistate analytical framework to model health trajectories across the life course by capturing dynamic transitions among healthy, diseased, disabled, and deceased states. The proposed framework integrates longitudinal data with transition probability estimation to examine the timing, duration, and determinants of health changes from childhood to old age. By accounting for competing risks and individual heterogeneity, the model provides more accurate estimates of disease progression and recovery patterns than conventional survival analyses. The findings demonstrate the usefulness of multistate modeling in identifying critical intervention periods and evaluating the long-term effects of health policies. This approach offers valuable insights for researchers, healthcare providers, and policymakers seeking to improve population health through evidence-based planning and preventive strategies.